Haven’t Posted in a While
February 26th, 2009
I haven’t posted here in a while - my apologies. I’ve been very busy, and I’ll try to get back to this.
The House Republicans Don’t Get It
February 1st, 2009
The House Republicans are suffering from a case of amnesia. Or, maybe they’re just obstinate. Let’s start with the basics: the Republicans got trumped in the previous election cycle. But, still, this is a new era of bipartisanship, right? Let’s leave that aside. A few things happened this week that made me unhappy. First, the House of Representatives just makes me unhappy, period. The Democrats passed a pretty standard agenda bill. At least, though, they won the election and have some kind of ‘right’ to do so. The House Republicans voted against the delaying the digital TV transition. Regardless of your opinion the issue, it seems pretty ridiculous that they defeated the bill when Senate Republicans approved it unanimously. Second - the stimulus. The House Republicans complained, complained, and then complained so more. “How could we fix this bill?” asked the Democrats. “Make it all tax cuts”, responded the Republicans. “How much will that cost?” “We’re not sure.” Third, Rush Limbaugh. Anyone who is willing to give the man the light of day needs his head examined (does that make me a hypocrite?). This is supposed to be a new era of bipartisanship, and here go the Republicans apologizing because they offended their dear Rush.
I don’t dislike Republicans. In fact, I liked how all of them thanked President Obama for coming to Capitol Hill. I liked how they elected Michael Steele, a dynamic independent thinker, to be the head of the RNC (watch out, Democrats). And, I like how Senator Susan Collins (R) is working on the stimulus package with Senator Bill Nelson (D). But this House Republican stimulus package debacle and the Rush Limbaugh fiasco are unnecessary and will not help the Republican Party. Nor will it help the American people.
P.S. If you want a greater headache, read this. If feeling depressed after reading that, read this. OK, just read that anyway.
Update: Maybe the Democrats don’t have to worry about Michael Steele. Time will tell.
H.R. 1 - First Thoughts
January 27th, 2009
For those having trouble getting their arms around the 647 page pdf of H.R. 1, this may help. $185 billion of this package is for individual tax cuts. $43 billion are for state and local tax relief, $30 billion for buisnesses, $20 billion for renewable energy (presumably incentives) and $5 billion set aside for especially troubled areas of our economy (sans Las Vegas - no casino funding is permitted in this bill). We are in a consumer driven economy. 70% of our GDP is made up of consumer spending. The fact that the majority of tax cuts are going to consumers seems like a good idea. Another significant portion of the bill is fiscal aid to states, aside from the tax cuts. I was surprised by the amount of money forked over for unemployment benefits in this bill. I’ll be honest - I know the unemployment rate is 7.2% and is likely to increase, but I did not know that this translated into such an influx (the order of $75 billion) of money into the unemployment system itself. I was pleased to see billions allocated to energy efficency, a new power grid, weatherization, research, and others. Let’s be very clear: this bill is huge. I’m sure it has some bad things in it - but at least on the surface it appears to be putting money in the right places. Time will tell.
It’s Already a Compromise
January 27th, 2009
President Obama went to Capitol Hill today to meet with the GOP in the spirit of bipartisanship. Instead of making some concessions to the Democrats, the GOP (who, by the way, severely lost the 2008 elections - but President Obama seems to look beyond that) continue to insist that there must be more tax cuts in the new stimulus package. Now I will be the first to admit that rebate checks are not the greatest form of economic stimulation - tax cuts would be more effective. Since we have not seen the final version of the bill, we don’t know how much of these tax changes are for what brackets of income or for what businesses, much less what are rebate checks and what are rate cuts. But, the widely cited figure of this package is that it is 40% tax cuts. There are three ways a government can help shift aggregate demand to the right (for the uneconomically inclined, think “a kick in the pants”):
- Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
- Federal government invests in infrastructure
- Federal government cuts taxes
The Fed has already put the rates to virtually zero. The early 2008 stimulus package focused on rebates for average Americans, which falls in the cutting taxes area. So, seeing as we’ve already tried that, I’d hope that the Obama administration favors tax cuts over stimulus checks. The cuts don’t even have to be permanent, and they don’t even have to be for all Americans. Seeing as the figures range from 65%-75% of how much of the bill will be spent in the next 18 months and the fact that this is package is 40% tax cuts, it would appear that this bill is headed in the right direction. And, as the GOP attempts to add more tax cuts, let’s keep this in mind - the Obama administration has already conceded on leaving the Bush tax cuts in place for the wealthiest 1% of Americans at least for the moment. The Democrats were just resoundingly victorious in the election. A package that includes tax cuts at all is a victory for the Republicans, much less 40% of this.
Enough of viewing this through the lens of Democrats and Republicans. Everyone is trying to help the American people. I look forward to seeing the text of the bill.
Update: AP says the Republicans want 40% tax cuts. H.R. 1 might not be that percentage - will be interesting to see what the Senate version looks like.
BHO Hits Ground Running
January 21st, 2009
I was truly moved yesterday watching Barack Obama take the oath of office to become the 44th President of the United States. While his speech was very impressive, what is more impressive is what he did yesterday afternoon and today. Aside from looking very Presidential, he and his team of advisers have already launched into a flurry of activity in his first 36 hours in office. Of course, this is to be expected of any new president. This, however, is not. Nor, is this. The new White House website, which is centered on delivering information to the average citizen, is light years ahead of the old one. It asks citizens to submit their own ideas, comment on legislation, review policy, and challenge the government to be as transparent as possible. On a similar note of transparency and accountability, Obama has made it the law of the land that is staffers have to be as open as possible. These are only two of the welcome changes in this new era, ones that I hope foreshadow similar sweeping reforms of common sense. I wish the best of luck to President Obama.
IBM, Friedman, and “A Smarter Planet”
January 4th, 2009
Today I noticed IBM’s new and aggressive advertising campaign about creating a smarter planet. As happy I was with Tom Friedman’s new book, this probably excites me more - a respected, well known very large company is using innovation and smarts to talk about the way forward. The first words of IBM’s site will remind you of Friedman:
The list of problems is well-known: A financial crisis. Climate disruption. Energy geopolitics. Food supply hazards.
What they show is that we’re all connected, today like never before: economically, socially and technically. When a crisis occurs on one part of the planet, it can bring problems to another part, within days or even hours.
This hits home on Friedman’s thesis of a hot (warming), flat (globalized), and crowded (population) world. Like Tom Friedman and Chapter 18, IBM has started a blog dedicated to this.
The Difficulties of the Israel Endgame
January 3rd, 2009
The conflict that escalated today made me think: how does this all end? Israel concedes and withdraws from Gaza. A truce is reached. Hamas breaks truce. Israel overreacts. Repeat?
There are radicals on both sides of this. Some Palestinian representatives (one was just on CNN) say that this is all Israel’s fault. Fierce Zionists say that self defense - at any caliber - is justtified. Where is the clear headed mediator? The Bush Administration certainly is filling that role. The same aforementioned Palestinian did say one thing of note: much of the blame for this particular eruption can be placed on the Bush Administration. The United States are looked to provide leadership and mediation. How is this possible when the White House let’s Israel do whatever it wants? The official tries to blame the United States fthe conflict itself, which is a bit of a stretch. But, there is plenty of blame to go around. America needs to try and stop the violence, and they’re not. They’re not even trying.
The Difficulties of Clean Energy
January 3rd, 2009
Tom Friedman poses:
Thanks to all for the comments. As I am finding from the people I meet on the road during events in connection with the book, there is a real groundswell of enthusiasm and commitment to bringing about a change from the Dirty Fuels System to a Clean Energy System. But as your comments indicate, we all know that many, many obstacles stand in the way.
In the book — pages 391-3 — I tell the story of the effort of Southern California Edison to produce wind power in the Thachapi Pass and send it to Los Angeles, 275 miles away. It took eleven years — eleven years — for all the local and state governments, regulatory agencies, utilities commissions, and environmental groups to review the process and make their recommendations. That is why I sometimes wish that America could be “China for a Day.”
What stories do you have about the difficulty of making Clean Energy work even when everyone agrees that it is in our best interests?
There are many stories of roadblocks to clean energy. I think one that we often overlook is not necessarily a story, but an overarching theme: the information war over clean energy. Everyone saw how much of the debate coverage on many network channels were sponsored by America’s Power, playing up clean coal technology and other domestic relics from the Dirty Fuels System. The DFS lobby has a lot of money, and they are trying to use it to manipulate the minds of the average American (isn’t that what all advertising does?). After about six months of non-stop ads about domestic oil and clean coal, the folks at We Can Solve It launched This Is Reality, a program dedicated to repelling what they call “the myth of clean coal”. What do we believe? Clean coal advocates provide their “facts“, and so the opponents. Coal says that where they provide energy is cheaper, environmentalists day that the purported clean coal technology doesn’t even exist. I fall on the side of We Can Solve It - but that doesn’t really matter. The point is that there is war over advertising, information, and propaganda. While Hot, Flat, and Crowded does a good job of providing a sensible point of view, this needs to be given to the masses in the same way America’s Power shows their ads to all.
Another thing: when this happens, how many people get frustrated and confused?
I posted this on Chapter 18:
How can the average Joe be expected to understand the imperative of a Green Revolution when things like this occur regularly?
I don’t mean to incinuate that the average American is stupid by any means, just that he may be confused or frustrated with this tug-of-war over our future energy policy.
Tom Friedman and Hot, Flat, and Crowded
December 30th, 2008
I am about 75% of the way through Hot, Flat, and Crowded, Tom Friedman’s new book. I was a big fan of The World is Flat, and now that I have some time to read Hot, Flat, and Crowded I am very excited. Mr. Friedman also has an interesting concept called “Chapter 18” that he has floated on his website. The book is seventeen chapters, and he wants user feedback to be involved in creating Hot, Flat, and Crowded 2.0 in the form of Chapter 18. His notes on this:
Hot, Flat, and Crowded has seventeen chapters. What’s Chapter 18? Chapter 18 will be a completely new chapter that I’ll add to the next edition of the book: Version 2.0. In it I hope to include the best ideas and proposals sent in from readers: ideas about clean energy, energy efficiency, and conservation; about petropolitics and nation-building in America; about how we can help take the lead in the renewal of our country and the Earth alike by going Code Green. I am eager for your suggestions — please post them here.
He has posed certain questions for users to answer. I would love to participate, but I feel that I need to finish the book first. When I do, I hope to write some blog posts answering Mr. Friedman’s questions or just commenting on his ideas.
Hot, Flat and Crowded is available from his publisher (among other places), here.
Will iPod Save Apple Again?
December 30th, 2008
A few days ago we learned that two Apple products: the iPod Touch and Microsoft Office for Mac have done extremely well this holiday season. The iPod is doing so well, that the Safari mobile browser share has better than quadrupled. We remember from November that Mac desktop sales are down, and that the last bad forecasts by Apple hurt their stock price. It seems that although the Mac may be struggling slightly during this recession, the iPod (which has more of a monopoly on its market than the computers do) is doing fantastically well. Since its introduction almost a decade ago, the iPod has widely been credited with Apple’s publicity and success in Mac conversions. It seems that in this holiday season, iPods will once again be a large revenue generator for Apple, helping to cushion their numbers in tough economic times.